Jumping The Shark — By Jeff Freedman

HOLLYWOOD, CA (Hollywood Today) 5/27/08 — While the Tampa Bay Rays and the Florida Marlins continue to defy expectations in sitting atop their divisions, and the Chicago Cubs are continuing to reward believers in karma (This is the 100^th year anniversary since the team last won the World Series); you can argue with much success that the New York Mets and the Detroit Tigers are the two most disappointing teams in all of baseball.

Like television series, there comes a moment when things just go so off course that afterwards there is no turning back; the audience has been asked to accept what it no longer cannot and eventually the series dies a slow and painful death. So too with baseball teams.

In 2006 the Detroit Tigers were the story of the American League. They vanquished the perennial playoff-tested New York Yankees and then on to the World Series. Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya along with the gambler Kenny Rogers, who had the best two weeks of his life when it counted most, were blazing from the mound as the team lead the league in pitching. However, when their pitchers made key errors on easy plays, Detroit jumped the shark and lost to the Cardinals (not the Mets, see below) in a quick four games.

That same year the New York Mets seemed destined for the World Series as well. Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado all had tremendous years. But despite one of the great clutch catches of all time by left fielder Endy Chavez in a game 7 playoff against the Cardinals, the team left the tying and winning runs on base and lost.

Then it was on to 2007, where Detroit was no where close and the Mets staged a seemingly unforeseen collapse, losing a 7 game lead to the Philadelphia Phillies with but 17 left to play. But the Mets had jumped the shark before that last few weeks of the season. Earlier in the year, with the Mets romping through the league once again, there as a game against the San Francisco Giants at Shea Stadium. The Giants took a one-run lead into the bottom of the 10^th. Jose Reyes led off against embattled, ex-Met reliever Armando Benitez, in what would eventually prove to be his last game as a Giant. He got on base, stole second, then so bothered Benitez so much he was balked to third and then amazingly balked home to tie the game. A few moments later Delgado hit a home run to win the game. The Mets were on top of the league, seemingly invincible. No one knew it then, but they had jumped the shark.

Since that game, the Mets have played nearly a full season’s worth of games and are a below .500 team. Their manager, Willie Randolph, who believes in just letting the players play and that talent will win out, perhaps only still has his job because there is not an obvious candidate to replace him. Only David Wright is performing at his expected level and not even the off-season acquisition of Johan Santana has been a panacea for what ails this team. Some say there are problems in the clubhouse; others complain about the way the bullpen is being used; there is carping about the batting order and disappointment in team failures both offensively and defensively at key moments.

Despite another beneficial trade by General Manager Omar Minaya, who obtained one of the team’s best performers in Ryan Church and steady catcher Brian Schneider for outfielder Lastings Milledge, who has not lived up to his promise in Washington, the team is closer to last place in its division than first place. The fixes for this team may not be obvious, but what is clear is that something must be done. Otherwise the last year in Shea Stadium may turn out to be much like the first for a team that loses more games that it wins. This is not what Met fans expected, at all.

Nor is it what was supposed to happen in Detroit. Over the off-season they made perhaps one of the splashiest trades, obtaining All-Star Miguel Cabrera along with left-hander Dontrelle Willis for a bunch of minor leaguers only die-hard fans had heard about. They would score over 1,000 runs, the pundits predicted. So powerful was their lineup that future Hall of Famer Pudge Rodriguez would bat ninth!

But all those same pundits had forgotten what had made Detroit so successful, and what generally makes teams so successful, in the first place: pitching. Verlander and Rogers are but shadows of their former selves. Jeremy Bonderman has seen his fastball straighten out and then get hit all over the yard. Zumaya has been hurt all season, as has fellow reliever Fernando Rodney. They haven’t scored enough runs early and their pitching doesn’t keep them in games late. Their veteran manager Jim Leyland carries on valiantly, but unless there are many changes on the mound this team will not win as it is unlikely to hit its way to a division championship. Eventually, some of the hitters will have to be traded for pitching.

And pitching is the hardest commodity to find in baseball today. Which is why both the Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays are probably going to be around the top of their divisions all season long. You’ll become familiar with the names soon enough: Kazmir (he from the Mets), Sonnestine, Jackson, Garza, Shields and a resurrected Troy Percival in Tampa; Olson, Miller (he from the Tigers) and a resurrected Mark Hendrickson in Miami. Yet these teams should also be wary. There isn’t a shark around that doesn’t like warm water.