Films like Atonement, No Country and Blood didn’t open wide until Oscar season, a strategy raising questions as most pics won’t find second life after noms or wins.

By Matthew B. Zeidman

HOLLYWOOD, CA (Hollywood Today) 2/18/08 – Each winter, moviegoers are bombarded with Oscar buzz, the largest of which comes with the announcement of the Academy Awards nominees. Studios collectively spend millions on ads and promotions targeted to industry voters, and besides the coveted Golden boy, like to see a little return on investment at the box office.

That’s not going to happen this year. In fact, it hasn’t happened in recent history. And there is not one Best Picture nominee in the 2007 box office Top 20, indicating the gap between public taste and Oscar glory has grown to a chasm. While the Writers Strike was a threat, the question was “What if they threw an Oscar night and no one came?” Now the question is “What if they threw an Oscar night and no one cared?”

A nomination can be a film’s badge of honor, setting it aside as a thoughtful, well produced title with a place in film history. And while it seems logical that the studios would profit from this recognition, the numbers show a much different story.

Take last year’s Best Picture winner, “The Departed,” for example. Before the Oscar nominations were announced, the film grossed $122 million in box office receipts, according to boxofficemojo.com. In the month following the announcement, the film only grossed another $10 million, which amounted to an almost 92-percent drop in revenue, despite only a 50-percent reduction in the number of theaters in which it was being shown. Following its win, it grossed an insignificant $579,000 more.

Fellow 2006 nominee, “Letters from Iwo Jima,” did four times as much business during the month between its nomination and the awards ceremony than it did preceding the nomination — but this was due to a much later release date, as well as an initial limited release. After its loss to “The Departed,” the film followed the pattern of drastically dropping attendance common to winners and losers alike, and during the film’s entire run, domestic box office receipts failed to turn a profit for the studio.

As we approach this year’s awards show, due also to a late and limited release, Oscar contender “There Will Be Blood” has only made $31 million—less than impressive for a film that cost $25 million to make and will most certainly run out of steam immediately following a win or loss. Studio bean counters will just have to take heart in the fact that Daniel Day-Lewis’ astounding performance will likely win him best actor honors and may be a staple at acting classes forever.

“Juno” has made $37 million following its nomination, but that is a film that made over $87 million in less than two months of release before it was even named a Best Picture hopeful. “Juno” didn’t need the Academy’s help to be wildly successful, and the Academy doesn’t have the power to breathe new life into a picture that just doesn’t have any moviegoer momentum behind it.

Blockbusters like “Titanic,” “Lord of the Rings” and “Silence of the Lambs” that find themselves nominated don’t need the extra press to lure audiences — though the Oscar telecast needs them as the years with hit favorites historically equal the best ratings.  “Silence of the Lambs” wasn’t even re-released after it was nominated and the numbers over the past several decades show that giving a movie the Academy’s seal of approval has had a negligible effect on box office receipts.

Quite simply, people who are interested in seeing a movie will go see it, and those who aren’t keen on the subject matter – like the brutal worlds of “No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Blood” — are not likely to be convinced by the Oscar hubbub.

By definition, the Academy Awards are endowed for artistic merits, not commercial success. This has been even more true in the last decade as indie-oriented smaller films have the norm rather than the exception. In the old days, you generally needed to be a hit to be considered the best.

While some studios try to buck historical trends by releasing their movies as close to the deadline as possible, hoping for voter heat and the mythical “Oscar boost,” no film has yet to ride Oscar buzz straight to the bank. A later release date can shift profits, but not fabricate them.