Bury His Heart At NBC, Dick Wolf’s “Law & Order” May Not Out-Gun “Gunsmoke”
By Alex Ben Block
HOLLYWOOD, CA. (Hollywood Today) 5/11/07 – Is there a new sheriff in Dodge? Prospects appear iffy that $4 million-per-episode veteran drama “Law & Order” will return to NBC this fall for an 18th year. If that is the case, it would end the longtime dream of producer Dick Wolf to see his show eclipse the run of “Gunsmoke,” set in Dodge, Kansas, which aired on CBS for twenty seasons.
It would also symbolize the huge changes ahead during in network advertising arrangements that will be very different from past years.
If anyone at General Electric’s broadcast division knows the fate of “Law & Order” for sure, the news had not reached Wolf as of 10:30 p.m. Thursday, three days before NBC was to announce its fall schedule. Wolf was at the classy after party on the Paramount lot in Hollywood for the HBO premiere of the powerful drama “Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee,” which he executive produced with Tom Thayer.
Wolf just shrugged when asked about the prospects that his flagship show would return. He swore that he had still no idea; nor was he sure of the fate of “Law & Order: Criminal Intent,” one of three spin-offs he has created over the years.
Only “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” had already been assured of renewal. This lack of consultation with Wolf by NBC was conspicuously unusual. In past years the network execs have courted Wolf. But then this is an unusual year in many ways, beginning with a major management shakeup at NBC since the last time a new schedule was announced. The Jeff Zucker era at NBC has begun, with Bob Wright heading into retirement.
In the past when NBC tried to cancel one of his shows, Wolf has used his considerable leverage to win a reprieve. Even this year, if NBC does pass, the flagship show could continue to live on Time Warner’s basic cable TNT Network, which has already made an overture. TNT for years has licensed the L&O reruns, so it would extend their brand, which is built around presenting dramas.
Various “L&O” reruns also air on the USA Network and Bravo. More than 15 episodes from the various shows typically air each day somewhere on broadcast and cable.
To air on TNT, however, Wolf would have to pare down the budget, which would probably mean re-casting the show once again to hire less expensive talent. The current cast includes Sam Waterston, Jesse L. Martin and S. Epatha Merkerson.
If it does end, Waterston and Fred Thompson have backup plans that go all the way to the White House. Thompson is considering joining the 2008 race as a Republican candidate, and has some support to do so. See Hollywood Today’s story Thompson Presidential Run . Waterston is pushing for a bi-partisan presidential ticket. See our story Waterston Seeks Law and Order in White House .
Even if it stays on NBC, the budget will probably come down. Wolf held talks last month with NBC about ways to lower the shows pricey $4 million per episode cost. NBC can replace it with a newer show that gets similar ratings for about $2.5 million. Wolf would obviously rather remain on NBC, even for a reduced fee, chasing a larger audience. The problem is the audience for the show, while still substantial at about 9 million per week, has been slowly slipping.
Wolf would obviously rather remain on NBC, even for a reduced fee, chasing a larger audience. The problem is the audience for the show, while still substantial at about 9 million per week, has been slowly slipping.
Wolf, who began his career as an advertising copywriter before joining the writing staff of “Hill Street Blues,” has been through all of this before. He knows what he likes and he stays with it. Under his steady hand, “Law & Order” developed from a single show into an industry — spin-offs, syndication, home video, books. merchandise and more.
Wolf wearily recalled on Thursday that it had taken over six years to get “Wounded Knee” made, and on pay TV rather than a theatrical release. His prep school education showing, Wolf compared the task of making the powerful drama to the story in Greek mythology of Sisyphus, the King who defied the Gods. His payback in Hades was to spend eternity pushing a stone up a hill.
This highly polished stone is a landmark in the depiction of Indians in American media, and it has finally reached the top of the hill. “Wounded Knee: is a brilliantly made, but utterly depressing drama about the relentless, repeated injustices heaped on American Indians. The acting, direction and cinematography are award-worthy and the story is heart breaking. The performances by Adam Beach in the lead role, Wes Studi, Aiden Quinn, August Schellenberg as Chief Sitting Bull, and the rest of the large cast, are consistently excellent.
“Wounded Knee” gives the lie to all those old westerns. It documents that Custer and the rest of the U.S. Army were cold blooded killers acting on behalf of greedy special interests. This movie brings to light every bad thing you ever thought America did to its native population as civilization moved from east to west but worse. Much worse. And it is all detailed from the pride of Sitting Bull to the bloody murder of unarmed women and children to the dire lack of medicine, sanitation and food.
On Monday, Wolf plans to be in New York at Radio City Music Hall for the NBC presentation. He knows the decision on his shows will not be about quality or cast; but rather about the business reality, and the need to freshen the schedule of a network that was once Must See TV, and now is barely in fourth place in the network ratings race, behind leaders CBS, Fox and ABC.
It isn’t just Wolf who is feeling there is something in the air this year, as the broadcast networks announce their fall schedules to advertisers. The glitzy show case presentations at venues by every network are expected to finally jump start the annual upfront advertising market, which arrives filled with questions and confusion about what advertisers are willing to pay for as well as how and when to count viewers.
This year for the first time advertisers will have the option of buying air time based on an average rating for all the commercials in a show instead of the number viewing the program’s content.
Nielsen is rolling out Commercial Ratings at the end of this month, although there have been recent reports that even the dominant provider of TV ratings may be finding the task a bit daunting. Last week Nielsen was reportedly contacting cable operators to get their internal logs of commercials run, to try and match up the data with their own research based on a sample of the U.S. population.
This is all the result of the shock waves that have passed through the TV business in the last two or three years as the Digital Video Recorder (DVR, or TiVo) has penetrated nearly 17 percent of American TV homes, and more importantly become a tool to skip ads in many of the richest homes where they watch the most TV. .
While the VCR has offered the ability to record off the air since the late 1970s, it is only with the ease of convenience that the DVR offers that ad skipping has become an issue. At the 2006 upfront, a full scale confrontation developed between major broadcast network and their biggest advertisers and the agencies on Madison Avenue that represent them. The networks wanted advertisers to pay for viewing of their shows by people who recorded with a DVR and then watched later.
The big advertisers were adamant in their refusal to pay for anything except people who watch the show live and in a pre-set schedule pattern. They argued over whether to only include DVR viewing the same day as it aired, or as much as seven days later. Advertisers insisted they needed immediate results, not later viewing. The networks said even if you adjust for ad skippers, around 7 percent of all viewership was at stake.
In the end, under the gun to do deals, the networks caved in; but it left a bitter taste. All of the network ad sales for this season are done only for live viewing. In the meanwhile the number of homes with DVR’s has now reached about 17 percent, and that 7 percent figure is now somewhat higher. Unless they can do a new kind of deal, the networks will consider all of the time shifted audience a complete waste.
Advertisers, according to several sources, are slowly coming around. They are now open to doing deals for some time shifted viewing, probably same day and maybe one day out. In general, however, they will resist more than that.
There are also questions about whether advertisers will use the new Commercial Ratings. The big advertisers have been adamant that hey prefer actual minute by minute ratings; but the networks insist that they cannot measure accurately at that level, because various commercials as well as promo material all get mixed in.
Network officials in the future want to do custom deals. For those advertisers who want viewing up to seven days, they will structure a different contract. A top CBS research exec said they think this will be a major change, and could take five years to shake out.